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International Energy Outlook (IEO)  2006
Oil Consumption  and CO2 Emissions - both Rising
by Shirley Georgi



General Energy Trends

World energy consumption is projected to increase by 71 percent from 2003 to 2030, according to the most recent report from the U.S.  DOE/EIA (Department of Energy/Energy Information Administration) in June 2006.   Worldwide, the usage will grow from 421 quadrillion BTUs (British Thermal Units) in 2003 to 722 quadrillion BTUs  in 2030.

The non-OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) nations, including China and India as well as  South and Central America, Africa and some Eurasian countries,  will increase their consumption about 5.0 percent per year on average in comparison to the average of 2.6 percent per year for the OECD economies.

Adobe Photoshop ImageThe slowest growth rate in energy demand among the end use sectors is projected for transportation, at 1.4 percent. +

Oil

Oil remains the dominant energy source, given its importance for both transportation and the industrial sector.   However, the DOE/EIA report notes that because of high world oil prices in the year’s outlook , oil’s share on the world energy market has been reduced; other fuels are being used whereever possible.  In the IEO 2006 projection, oil demand in 2025 is 8 million barrels per day lower than the 119 million barrels per day projected in IEO 2005.  Although growth is not as rapid, world oil demand is on the rise and the forecast shows an increase  from 80 million barrels per day in 2003 to 98 million barrels in 2015 and 118 billion barrels per day in 2030.

To meet the increase in demand by 2030, there will need to be an additional 38 million barrels of oil a day produced, compared to 2003 levels.  OPEC producers are expected to provide  14.6 million barrels  per day for the increase which is needed.  Non-OPEC production is expected to increase by 62 percent (27.3 million barrels a day) over the projection period.  Unconventional resources such as biofuels, coal-to -liquids  and gas-to-liquids  are gaining ground and by 2030, these resources  will account for nearly 10 percent of the total world petroleum supply.  

Adobe Photoshop ImageOil’s share of total world energy use will fall 6 percent between 2003 and 2006.  On a worldwide basis, coal’s share of industrial sector energy use increases, mostly because of the substantial growth projected for coal consumption in China’s industrial sector.  Much of the projected growth in renewable electricity generation results from the expected completion of large hydroelectric facilities in non-OECD nations.  +

Carbon dioxide (CO2)

In 1990, world carbon emissions were listed at 21.2 billion metric tons.  By  2003, the figure rose to 25.0 billion.  That  figure is expected to grow to over  30 billion by 2105. In  2030, the amount is forecasted to escalate to about 43 billion. When compared to the total emissions forecast in IEO 2005, the new number for IEO 2006 is 0.03 percent higher. The EIA report states that  “continued heavy reliance  on coal and other fossil fuels in many parts of the world suggest that even if nations that have ratified the Kyoto Protocol  reduce their carbon dioxide emissions as required in the treaty, there  still  will  be substantial   increases  in  carbon dioxide emissions worldwide.” And three-fourths of the projected increase in carbon dioxide emissions will result from fossil fuel consumption in non-OECD countries.  

Adobe Photoshop ImageAlthough oil is still the leader by 2030, renewable sources become more economically competitive with fossil fuels and renewable energy use expands as rapidly as consumption of natural gas and coal.  +

Emissions from North America are growing the most rapidly among the OECD regions, by 1.3 percent a year. By 2030, projections are that this regions carbon dioxide emissions will reach 9,735 million metric tons.  

In contrast, only limited growth in demand for energy and carbon emissions is projected for the  OECD nations in Europe and Asia  (countries such as Japan and South Korea). Carbon emissions for OECD Europe will average 0.7 percent per year from 2003 to 2030, totaling 5,123 million metric tons of CO2. OECD Asia will grow by an average of 0.9 percent with a total of 2,638 million metric tons of CO2 by 2030.


For non-OECD nations in Asia such as China and India, emissions are projected to average 3.6 percent in growth  by 2030. This is the largest gain for any region in the world. The forecasted amount of CO2 emissions for this region  is 15,984 million metric tons which represents almost 37 percent of all projected global carbon dioxide emissions.  Strong economic growth drives the demand for fossil fuels and thus the projected increase in the regions’ carbon dioxide emissions.

For a complete report on the “International Energy Outlook for 2006,” see the website:
 http://www.eia.doe.gov.               
   BD